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Predicting the Market Bottom

There is still controversy about whether or not the latest real estate market data is signalling a bottom to the market.

The naysayers point to the increasing delinquency rate on Alt A and Prime Loans as an indication that we will see a new wave of foreclosures and further declines in prices.

Those who feel the market has already bottomed or soon will, point to the increased sales and drop in inventory.

Who is right? We wish we had a crystal ball and could tell you for certain where prices will be in a year or two from now. Unfortunately, our crystal ball is rather cloudy at this time.

What we can tell you is that timing market bottoms is nearly impossible to do. In some cases, prices have already dropped by 50% or more. Are you willing to risk waiting in the hopes that you’ll be able to get another 10 or 15% in savings?

Look ahead 5 to 10 years from now, and ask yourself where prices will be. When you put it into perspective, you will probably feel, as we do, that the risks of missing the boat are far greater than the downside risk at this time.

Mahalo Nui Loa,

Ken Smith R (S)