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Issue 1165 | July 30th, 2025
Aloha ,
Maui Real Estate Outlook: Brewbaker's Take vs Today's Reality
Aloha!
Brewbaker’s June 2025 Forecast
In June 2025, economist Paul Brewbaker, featured in the Hawaii Housing Report with Patrick O’Neill, analyzed Maui's housing market. He emphasized a "turning point" characterized by limited supply and growing demand—indicating that prices, especially for single-family homes, were set to rebound and appreciate further. He cited rising prices, shorter market times, and strengthening buyer interest as evidence of a recovery trajectory driven by persistent supply constraints.
Timing & Perspective
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Forecast Date: Brewbaker's analysis was based on market data through May/June 2025.
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Focus Area: His bullish outlook was more generalized, with particular emphasis on single-family homes, not condo-specific trends.
The Market Today – June 2025 Data Recap
1. Single-Family Homes
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Median sales price: approx. $1.315 M in June 2025—a 5.7% drop YoY from $1.395 M in June 2024.
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Home sales volume: stable at ~66 sales, nearly unchanged from the prior year.
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Market pace: average days on market ~143, a 21% longer than last year.
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Market stance: Zillow lists Maui County as buyer-friendly, with ~58 days to pending and a ~3.5% drop in values over 12 months.
Bottom line: Contrary to Brewbaker’s forecasts, single-family homes are experiencing modest price declines, slower sales, and shifting slightly in buyers’ favor.
2. Condominiums
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Median sales price: $700 K in June 2025, a drastic 28.6% year-on-year decline from $980 K.
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Sales volume: dropped about 5% YoY (56 → 59).
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Days on market: ~125–138 days, roughly 6% longer YoY.
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Segment snapshot: Wailea/Makena prices fell to $2.16 M from $2.475 M; Kihei condos sliding from $980 K to $780 K.
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Listings trend: Condo inventory is increasing; new listings are slightly lower YoY but have grown compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Summary: The condo market has cooled sharply—big price drops, higher inventory, and diminished buyer demand show clear signs of distress.
Key Drivers Behind the Split
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Segment-Specific Dynamics: Brewbaker’s forecast was influenced by broader supply constraints—primarily single-family homes—while the condo segment is strained by overbuilding, regulatory risk, and declining demand.
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STR Policy & Regulatory Risks: Proposals to restrict short-term rentals (e.g., conversion to long-term housing) could plunge condo values by another 20–40% if implemented.
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Lag in Forecast Data: Brewbaker’s June forecast did not reflect the swift condo downturn witnessed in June.
For Buyers and Sellers
| Segment |
Sellers Should Know |
Buyers Can Benefit From |
| Single-Family |
Moderate price corrections; be open to negotiation.
Longer market times (~150 days). |
Still some leverage, but the segment remains relatively stable—act timely. |
| Condos |
Expect steep discounts; prepare for ~4–30% price drops.
Prioritize demand-hot zones. |
Excellent buying opportunity—many sellers are reducing prices. |
Final Takeaway
What to Watch Next
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STR Policy decisions by end of July 2025—could significantly reshape condo valuations.
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July/August MLS data for condo price stabilization or further decline.
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New listings & pending sales: Tracking June and July condo pendings will show whether buyer interest is returning.
Mahalo Nui Loa,
Ken Smith R(S), Melissa Smith R(B), and Gregory P Smith R(B)
The Smith Team
P.S. Maui’s First Indoor Food Truck Lot Opens at Lahaina Cannery.
Market Watch
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Active |
Pending |
Sold |
Change |
| Homes |
444 (392) |
114 (78) |
699 (521) |
-3 |
| Condos |
878 (341) |
86 (23) |
699 (263) |
+2 |
| Land |
205 (80) |
20 (7) |
152 (53) |
-1 |
| Total |
1527 (813) |
220 (108) |
1550 (837) |
-2 |
1. Numbers in parentheses reflect listings over $1M
2. Sold listings are for the previous 12 months
3. Change is the increase/decrease from the previous week
January 2025
February 2025
March 2025
April 2025
May 2025
June 2025
Market Statistics
Updated list of all bank-owned and short-sale properties:
Bank-owned
Short sale
Homes Over $1M
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364 Haulani St
Makawao
$1.060M (FS)
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This home sits in a wonderful location, a corner ocean view lot on the golf course end of Haulani Street, on approximately 0.51 acres. This home is ready for new owners, where some cosmetic TLC is going to bring this property its glory. The price reflects the opportunity. Vacant and easy to show.
Customer Listing Synopsis
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115 Kumula'au Ohia Loop
Wailuku
$1.395M (FS)
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This exquisite home is a true gem, showcasing countless upgrades and meticulous care throughout. From the moment you step inside, you’ll notice the thoughtful enhancements, including beautiful hardwood floors, elegant crystal chandelier and pendant lighting.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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540 Kaiapa Pl
Haiku
$1.795M (FS)
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Ocean view Oasis with Bonus Guest Cottage – 5 Beds, 4 Baths Total Main House + Cottage | Breathtaking Views | Endless Possibilities. Welcome to your Upcountry dream retreat! This unique property features a stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath main home with expansive ocean views plus a fully equipped 2-bedroom, 2-bath guest cottage—perfect for multi-generational living, rental income, or private guest accommodations.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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275 Kenolio Rd
Kihei
$1.800M (FS)
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A RARE find on ¾ acre, R-2 zoned property in North Kihei! 3 Bd/1 bath main house (1225 sf) and 2 bd/2 bath ohana (1320 sf) with room to possibly add another dwelling with R-2 zoning. This is it if you’re looking for an opportunity for multi-generational living, rental potential, or a peaceful place to garden and relax.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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81 S Piki Pl
Lahaina
$2.889M (FS)
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Perched on sought-after Kaanapali Hillside, this light-filled and beautifully renovated 4-bedroom and 3.5-bathroom home blends spacious comfort with the exceptional beauty of West Maui. Just a 5-minute golf cart ride to Airport Beach, championship golf at Kaanapali and Kapalua, and charming local spots for coffee or a sunset bite at Whalers Village nearby, you’re perfectly placed to savor island living.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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Homes Under $1M
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601 Linekona Pl
Wailuku
$520K (FS)
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With a vision and some TLC, make this house your own! Just a few steps away from the ocean, you will feel the ocean breeze! With easy access to food options, retail establishments, Kahului Airport, and a number of medical institutions, the Central Maui location is ideal. This is a bank-owned property.
Customer Listing Synopsis
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223-C Momi Pl
Wailuku
$739K (FS)
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Seller motivated! Don't miss the chance to own this freshly remodeled 3 bed, 2 bath home before the seller puts a renter in. A potential rent-to-own option contract is available! 223-C Momi Place was completely renovated from top to bottom in 2024, and features a great floor plan with the kitchen, living room, and two bedrooms in the main "upper area", and another large room and bathroom located on the other end with its own entrance.
Customer Listing Synopsis
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640 Lihau Pl
Haiku
$849K (FS)
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Welcome to 640 Lihau Pl, a newly remodeled island retreat tucked into one of Haiku’s most convenient and peaceful neighborhoods. This thoughtfully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home blends clean, modern design with the laid-back charm of upcountry Maui living. Featuring quartz countertops, wood-looking vinyl plank flooring, and bright, airy interiors, this home is move-in ready and full of potential.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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720 Kekona Pl
Makawao
$999K (FS)
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Nestled in a peaceful and mature neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 988 sq. ft. home offers a serene escape with convenient access to the best of Upcountry living. Just moments from Makawao Town and minutes from world-class beaches. Enjoy the cool Upcountry climate, ideal for gardening and outdoor activities.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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Vacation Condos Over $1M
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Wailea Ekolu # 1705
Kihei
$1.500M (FS)
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Situated on the prestigious Wailea Blue Golf Course with stunning ocean views, this modern single-level 2-bedroom, 2-bath ground-floor residence is located in Wailea Ekolu. Open-concept design with luxury gray vinyl plank flooring throughout.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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Kaanapali Shores # 502
Lahaina
$2.998M (FS)
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Experience the height of sophistication in oceanfront living as this modern residence redefines luxury within the Ka'anapali Shores Resort. Enviably positioned on the fifth floor, this direct beachfront corner unit enjoys an expansive wrap-around lanai highlighted by panoramic ocean views including both the islands of Lana'i and Moloka'i.
Customer Listing Synopsis
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Wailea Elua II # 2109
Kihei
$3.475M (FS)
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Wailea Elua beachfront estate on the famed Ulua Beach with endless ocean vistas. Spacious, quiet and private - this upgraded Wailea Elua gem is located at the top of this luxurious and amenity-rich resort community. Wailea Elua is ideally located for fun in the sun.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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Vacation Condos Under $1M
Kalama Terrace # L-204
Kihei
$375K (FS)
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Welcome to this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath unit in Kalama Terrace! This condo features a newer gas stove and refrigerator, along with granite counters in the kitchen and updated wood cabinets, tiled shower walls, and tiled floors throughout. Enjoy the view of the peaceful grounds from your covered lanai area.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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Kihei Bay Surf # B119
Kihei
$400K (FS)
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Welcome home to this cozy ground-floor Kihei Maui Studio. This slice of paradise has fully turnkey furnishings and all the amenities to make you feel right at home. The kitchen features a granite counter, black appliances, and light wood cabinets. The bath has a waterfall bamboo-style faucet, a fully tiled tub/shower, a granite counter, and wood cabinets.
Customer Listing Synopsis
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Shores of Maui # 216
Kihei
$799K (FS)
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Welcome to your Maui dream retreat! This beautifully renovated 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo offers unobstructed, panoramic ocean views, upscale finishes, and resort-style amenities-all in a prime Kihei location. Enjoy spectacular sunsets over the Pacific from your private, covered lanai and wake up to sunrises above Haleakala's 10,000-foot summit from your bedroom.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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Luana Kai # C201
Kihei
$925K (FS)
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Experience the best of Maui living at Luana Kai C-201. This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath end unit offers ocean views and an unbeatable location within the complex. Stay cool year-round with split AC systems, and enjoy the convenience of a fully furnished, turn-key home—perfect for a primary residence or vacation getaway.
Customer Listing Synopsis
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Palms at Wailea I # 1803
Wailea
$975K (FS)
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Welcome to the Palms at Wailea, a sweet first floor unit tucked away in a private garden area of the complex. It features a large beautifully furnished lanai with dining and lounge areas. This well-appointed, fully furnished unit has newer furniture and artwork, and is a great place to relax and unwind.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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Residential Condos Over $1M
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Wailea Town Center # D201
Wailea
$1.895M (FS)
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Island Elegance in the Heart of Wailea! Wailea Town Center D-201 - This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath luxury condo offers the best of island living with the feel of an urban penthouse with stunning ocean views from Kahoolawe to the West Maui Mountains. The open layout features a large living & kitchen area with extra side windows and expands to the covered lanai with a built-in grill, perfect for dining and great for winter whale watching!
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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Na Hale O Makena # C302
Kihei
$2.600M (FS)
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Discover your serene tropical oasis with stunning ocean views in this exquisite Na Hale O Makena C302 residence. This beautifully appointed home includes two bedrooms, each featuring en-suite baths, a convenient powder room, a washer and dryer, and a spacious closet ideal for pantry storage. The thoughtful floor plan is designed for comfortable living.
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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Residential Condos Under $1M
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Iao Parkside I # 13-101
Wailuku
$439K (FS)
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Welcome to this well-maintained ground-level 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo located in the heart of Wailuku. This 657-sq. ft. unit features modern touches throughout, including stainless steel appliances, granite countertops in the kitchen, a tiled bathroom, shower, and the added convenience of a full-size washer and dryer in the unit.
Customer Listing Synopsis
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Iao Parkside I # 4202
Wailuku
$529K (FS)
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Priced to Sell!! In the heart of Wailuku this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath Iao Parkside unit is conveniently located close to restaurants and parks. This unit offers a spacious layout with 960 square feet of living space.
Customer Listing Synopsis
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Haleakala Gardens # 12E
Kihei
$695K (FS)
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Welcome to Haleakala Gardens, a pet-friendly complex just one block from the ocean and steps to Kalepolepo Beach and Waipulani Beach Park. Nestled in lush tropical landscaping, this top-floor, garden-view unit in Building 12 offers peace and privacy with a beautifully remodeled interior. This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features soaring vaulted ceilings and a thoughtful full renovation from top to bottom.
Customer Listing Synopsis
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Kehalani Gardens # 1401
Wailuku
$739K (FS)
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One of the most impressive and stunning secluded Corner town homes you'll ever see. It feels as if you're in your own sanctuary, as you walk down the long private tucked-away walkway towards your entrance. All in one level, no stairs at all - This 3-bed 2-bath Kehalani Gardens abode is "Move right on in" as seller generously will INCLUDE the majority of the quality furniture with the purchase at no cost to the buyer!
Customer Listing Synopsis
Video Tour
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Napili Villas # 24-2
Lahaina
$769K (FS)
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Discover the epitome of functional island living with this first-floor 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condominium nestled in the Napili Villas subdivision located on the upper West side of the island of Maui. As you step through the front door, you are greeted by a clean, open-concept living space adorned with tasteful island-inspired decor.
Customer Listing Synopsis
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Vacant Land
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0 Haleakala Hwy
Kula
$785K (FS)
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Set in a quiet and scenic part of Upcountry Maui, this land captures sweeping bi-coastal ocean views, majestic Haleakala vistas, and colorful sunsets that never get old. It’s a peaceful setting with just the right balance of openness and privacy — a place where you can truly unwind and create something meaningful.
Customer Listing Synopsis
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